This is my 2015 analysis of the potential value of US oil and gas companies. See the 2018 update for how wrong I got this (oil price collapse was harder and faster than I anticipated, but recovery looks promising).


This is my 2017 analysis of the potential value of some US wholesale electricity market generators.

Their value had been decimated by various policy initiatives in the US, but I felt the tide was turning and there was potential for some upside from this very low point. Again see my 2018 update for how I got this right but think there is still further potential upside.


As an aside the latest (September 2018) Infratril Update has a good explanation of how different policy initiatives worldwide impact the value of generation investments and what the forward looking risks for New Zealand’s journey towards a low carbon future are. See

And here is my 2018 update on how these investments have done, what I got right, what I got wrong, and how I think things might evolve in the future, including where I think further value still lies.