This is my 2015 analysis of the potential value of US oil and gas companies. See the 2018 update for how wrong I got this (oil price collapse was harder and faster than I anticipated, but recovery looks promising).

 http://www.nwcl.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/North-American-Gas-and-Oil-Companies-1.pdf

 

This is my 2017 analysis of the potential value of some US wholesale electricity market generators.

Their value had been decimated by various policy initiatives in the US, but I felt the tide was turning and there was potential for some upside from this very low point. Again see my 2018 update for how I got this right but think there is still further potential upside.

http://www.nwcl.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/US-Gas-and-Electricity-Markets-Application-to-Valuing-Two-US-Generating-Companies.pdf

 

As an aside the latest (September 2018) Infratril Update has a good explanation of how different policy initiatives worldwide impact the value of generation investments and what the forward looking risks for New Zealand’s journey towards a low carbon future are. See https://infratil.com/for-investors/announcements/2018/infratil-update-newsletter-september-2018/

And here is my 2018 update on how these investments have done, what I got right, what I got wrong, and how I think things might evolve in the future, including where I think further value still lies.

http://www.nwcl.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/US-Electricity-and-Gas-Markets-2018-Update.pdf